That number can obviously change, so it behooves us to adjust each lap’s time for the healthy car field size. To do so for Reddick, I’m simply looking at his healthy car lap times (prior to lap 323) and comparing them to the rest of the field.ĭoing this for every driver on a lap-by-lap basis gives us a fixed number of healthy cars on the track each lap. They are essentially random events, so the better option is to project true speed. While incidents do happen, projecting them is largely out of our control as bettors. A New Speed Metric: FLAGSĬlearly, in the example above, Reddick’s true speed was impacted by an incident. Prior to the incident, he had 62 such laps over a 322 lap span, a 19.3% rate.Īdditionally, Reddick recorded only six race-speed laps above 31.25 seconds prior to the incident. Graphically, we can see Reddick was hanging out between 30.5- and 31.25-second laps for the bulk of the race.Īfter the rubber build up and subsequent incident (indicated by the red arrow), Reddick only had two laps faster than 30.5 seconds over the final 91 laps, a 2.2% rate. He was unable to run the same speed the rest of the race. Eventually, that caused the tire to shred, costing Reddick a lap and damaging his car. However, on lap 323 rubber build up started accumulating in his tire and impacting it’s performance. Reddick was running solid for 322 of the 400 scheduled laps. Projecting Speed: An ExampleĪs a good example, let’s look at Tyler Reddick’s race in the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this year. Metrics like average green flag speed, average running position, driver rating, fastest laps and laps led are nice, but they often don’t tell the full story. That means we’re focused on the second method. However, that occurs before any on-track activity takes place. There is plenty of value in mid-week betting.
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